Week 31 of the 2020 U.S. Economic Calendar highlights estimates on Q2 GDP, personal income, and May home prices from Case-Shiller.
Last week’s market recap:
Nothing new to report on declining COVID-19 numbers in the United States. This may lead to a sharp decline in new cases over the coming weeks, or conditions will continue to get worse as more than 4 million Americans have already contracted the virus.
Moderna (NYSE: MRNA) is entering Phase III of their highly-anticipated COVID-19 vaccine trial. 30,000 people will participate in the trial beginning today, July 27, and finishing in the early Fall. According to Moderna, there will be a large number of participants receiving a placebo treatment for accurate responses. This will be the largest COVID-19 vaccine trial on the planet to-date.
Moderna’s Phase II data released earlier this month and showed nearly-perfect effectiveness at growing COVID-19 antibodies within participants and at increasing intervals. It is believed that a double-dose of many current vaccines, including Moderna’s, will protect individuals against COVID-19 long enough to warrant a near-compete return to social and economic normalcy.
Meanwhile, the Trump Administration paid Pfizer and BioNTech $1.6 billion to manufacture 200 million doses of their work-in-progress vaccine, and to have it ready by early 2021.
Across the pond in England, an Oxford-led vaccine from drugmaker Astra-Zeneca is still presumed to be the most complete vaccine to-date. The drug, now entering it’s own Phase III trial, encourages the growth of T-Cells in addition to antibodies. These T-Cells are key to fighting against this particular strain of coronavirus over the long-term, scientists say.
The race is on for mass-market vaccines in the United States and across the world.
Here are your key economic updates for the week ahead, July 27 – July 31:
Monday, July 27
- Census Bureau will release Durable Goods Orders – consensus is a 7.2% increase
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey for July
Tuesday, July 28
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices for May – consensus is a 4.0% increase in the year-over-year index
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey for July
- Q2 2019 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau
Wednesday, July 29
- MBA will release mortgage purchase applications index
- Pending Home Sales Index for June – consensus is a 15.3% increase
- FOMC Meeting Announcement – no major policy changes are expected
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak to the press on the FOMC meeting
Thursday, July 30
- Weekly unemployment claims – consensus is 1.550 million, up from last week’s 1.416 million claims
- Q2 GDP advance estimate and annual update. Consensus is a 34.0% annualized decrease in Q2, following Q1’s -5.0% GDP.
Friday, July 31
- Personal Income and Outlays, June 2020. Consensus is a -0.5% decrease in personal income, and a 5.5% increase in spending.
- Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July
- University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for July – consensus is a reading of 72.9.
